Written by: Austin Thomas
Is there a clear-cut trio at the wide receiver position atop the dynasty ranks? We all know that Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are constantly being interchanged as the number one wide receiver in the pecking order, and deservedly so. The landscape behind them, on the other hand, is a wide-open competition for the number three spot. Unlike Chase and Jefferson, who are in a tier by themselves, there is a case to be had for the dynasty WR3 amongst the next several receivers, but who warrants that title? Well, Garrett Wilson has been gaining a lot of traction as of late and seems to be the guy for the job. Let's see how he stacks up compared to some of the other contenders in the top-12.
Points Per Game (PPG):
Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are above the rest with more than 3.00 PPG over the others, which is why they're in an elite tier alone, but that's not why we're here. We want to see if Garrett Wilson is truly deserving of the WR3 title. Looking over the chart above, Wilson doesn't quite stack up to the other youngsters in career PPG. He wasn't even the top guy in his draft class in that stat. Chris Olave bested him 13.21 to 12.69 in that category. However, Wilson played with four different quarterbacks during his rookie season. Say what you will about Andy Dalton, but at least he provided consistency for Chris Olave, unlike the combination of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, and Chris Streveler for Garrett Wilson. Despite all the obstacles Wilson endured at the quarterback position, he still finished as a top-24 WR in his rookie season and a put up a respectable 12.69 PPG average. Of course, there is room for improvement, but an upgrade at quarterback will definitely help that.
TARGETS:
Looking at the chart above, Garrett Wilson is the top receiver in targets per game outside of Chase and Jefferson. In fact, according to StatMuse, Wilson was the second-highest target-earning rookie in NFL history. Not bad for a guy with subpar quarterback play. More targets generally lead to more production on the field and if Wilson can build off his rookie season he'll be reaching an elite number of targets in no time. Going from the band of misfits last season, to Aaron Rodgers, it will undoubtedly jet his production to new heights!
With the craze and off-season discussions among the fantasy community, I decided to ask all of you for your thoughts on the matter. I did a Twitter poll thread with Garrett Wilson against the other younger contenders and these are the results along with my thoughts.
Wilson v. London
I like Drake London and I believe he's going to be a very good wide receiver in the league, but I'm also a realist who understands his ceiling is capped by an offense that loves to run the ball. A high target share can only carry you so far, and with a bottom-three passing attack, it'll be hard to compete with the other elite players at the position. The Atlanta Falcons passed the ball 415 times, which was second to last in the league. Compare that to the New York Jets, who had the sixth most attempts, with 627. With Bijan Robinson in town, along with Desmond Ridder as the signal caller, I don't see a drastic change in the offensive scheme. As the voters said, Garrett Wilson easily takes the cake here!
Wilson v. Olave
I was surprised this one wasn't a little closer as both players got an upgrade at quarterback and showed flashes of elite traits during their rookie season. Chris Olave edged Garrett Wilson in PPG, but Wilson had 28 more targets. I think the former teammates out of THE Ohio State University will be in the WR1 conversation, but we need to see how Chris Olave handles Michael Thomas alongside him first. Injuries aside, Thomas was the number one wide receiver not long ago and still deserves respect. However, I think Olave will out-target Thomas this season and cement himself as one of the up and coming receivers in the game. Nonetheless, I believe Garrett Wilson is ahead of Chris Olave for the time being.
Wilson v. Higgins
Despite being overshadowed by Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins is still considered one of the premier wide receivers in the game. He's corralled 100+ targets each season and has a respectable career PPG of 13.84. Yet, I'm agreeing with the voters once again. As long as Higgins is tied to teammate Ja'Marr Chase, his upside will be capped. He's a tremendous receiver and he'll continuously teeter between WR1 and WR2 territory for the next several years, but he will ultimately fall short of the upper echelon. Not to mention, Higgins is going into the fourth and final year of his contract. Even if he did move on from Cincinnati and became a team's top weapon, there will be a new shiny youngster to be enamored with.
Wilson v. St. Brown
Finally, some results where a third of the voters picked the opposition. Although we're inching near the 50% mark, Garrett Wilson continues to hold strong above the rest. I too am taking Wilson over Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Sun God as they call him, has been the main beneficiary of a lackluster offensive receiving core since his arrival to Detroit. Well, that could change soon with rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta demanding a portion of the receiving load. Also, we can't forget about 2022's first-rounder Jameson Williams, who missed the majority of his rookie season and will be suspended for the six games in 2023. With this new trio, St. Brown won't be the only weapon utilized on offense. Dynasty is a game where you need to be thinking of the current season along with 2-3 years down the road and I just don't see Amon-Ra St. Brown continue getting the impressive amount of targets he's been peppered with, after all these new additions. Jump another spot up the board for Garrett Wilson.
Wilson v. Smith
I was generally shocked at how low DeVonta Smith ended up being here. Granted, I'm taking Garrett Wilson over Smith as well, I was still stunned that Smith didn't finish in the 25-30% range. Similar to Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith is playing beside an alpha receiver to weigh down his value. Before we talk about Smith being toward the top of the wide receiver dynasty order, he needs to take control of being the number one on his own team first. Until that happens, like Higgins, Smith will flip-flop between being a WR1 and WR2 in the rankings.
Wilson v. Waddle
The fans are a little more even when it comes to Garrett Wilson versus Jaylen Waddle and for good reason. Among all the players with two or fewer years of experience, excluding Ja'Marr Chase, Waddle leads them all with a 15.30 career PPG. There's only one person that stands in the way of Waddle and him rising the ranks; Tyreek Hill. There is a world where we could see Waddle surpass Hill this season, but are we living in that scenario? Going into year two, within Mike McDaniel's, offense and building chemistry with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen could waddle himself into the top-three conversation by this time next offseason. For now, I'll stick with the upside and potential of the Aaron Rodgers-Garrett Wilson connection.
Wilson v. Brown
The first battle Garrett Wilson loses is to AJ Brown. Although, also for the first time I disagree with the voters. AJ Brown is a beast of a man and is a threat to score from anywhere on the field, but he might not be the top target on his team within a couple of years. Remember, this is a dynasty format and it's often evaluated in intervals of three seasons. This is a coin-toss decision, but I feel like next year we'll be debating who Philadelphia's top receiver is and that puts the coin facing in favor of Wilson for me. If we're talking strictly redraft, however, I'm leaning toward AJ Brown.
Wilson v. Lamb
The final poll result has CeeDee Lamb besting Garrett Wilson too. Back-to-back tallies where Garrett Wilson loses to a top receiver in the NFC. My Garrett Wilson love stops here though, at least on his transcending trajectory into the top three. CeeDee Lamb has been in an upward motion of his own with the Dallas Cowboys. Lamb could be in store for a career year yet again this season and solidify himself into the elite tier with Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. Not that these players were ever a threat to CeeDee Lamb's target share, but the departure of Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown, Ezekiel Elliott, and TY Hilton, among a couple of others, opens up close to 200 targets to distribute. With Brandin Cooks as the only notable off-season addition and sophomore tight end Jake Ferguson assuming to take on the majority of those absent targets, CeeDee Lamb should get a boost as well, putting him in that 160-180 target range, until they find another playmaker on the outside. Give me Lamb over Garrett Wilson for the time being.
Conclusion:
The voters have spoken and have firmly placed Garrett Wilson as their WR5 behind Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and AJ Brown. I have him sitting at WR4 in my rankings, but he could make his way into the top three with a booming season. Aaron Rodgers is going to be a tremendous lift-off for this young New York Jets receivers career. Rodgers helped two of his former teammates, Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams, produce top-three fantasy finishes during his career. Five in total between the two. Garrett Wilson could be the next superstar receiver that Rodgers feeds targets to and let's why everyone is hyping him up. I think Garrett Wilson is safely in the top five dynasty wide receiver ranks with the potential to move up in the next season, but for now, I think he needs to take another step forward before cementing himself as a top-three asset at the position.
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